Identifying Opportunities in Economic & Regulatory Trends

Economic Opportunities

#1-- Farming Opportunities Amidst Trade War

After reading many articles on the U.S. - China trade war  (The Global Economy 2020: A Positive Outlook Shadowed by China, Debt, and Trade Tensions), I believe there is an opportunity for more cost effective farming practices for farmers in the U.S. Midwest. Based on recent economic trends and trade policy between the two countries, farmers in the U.S. have been struggling to sell important goods: soybeans, corn, and wheat due to tariffs. These crops not only financially support the lives of farmers, but are the foundations of many other markets. The prototypical customer would be farmers. An opportunity on this scale would be difficult to exploit considering each individual farmer is producing a unique variations of crops. Also, finding ways to reduce the cost of farming without violating regulations would be a challenge. 

I saw this opportunity because improving international relations to allow farmers to sell their products is what politicians are trying to do. Also, there is uncertainty when relations would begin to heal. This opportunity to target the farmers themselves by improving their operating margins is difficult, but can be exploited far sooner than the former option. 

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/31/global-economy-2020-outlook-positive-china-debt-trade-growth/

#2--Consumer Spending Could hint at Job Opportunities

An article titled Economic Trends: Reflections on 2019, Predictions for 2020 ranked 2019's fastest growing jobs, and hinted that consumer spending is a great trend to watch going forward into 2020. Based on this article, I believe an opportunity exists in non-tech industries, more specifically, the fast-food industry which is being revolutionized by the tech industry. Many people are looking to profit off the next big technology, but what about the needs of the fast-food worker who got displaced by a machine? I believe exploiting this opportunity could be very difficult. Those looking for jobs after being replaced by machines normally don't have the necessary skills to make an easy transition into another sector. 

This opportunity was reinforced after hearing 2020 Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang speak about automation and job displacement. What he has proposed so far with the "Freedom Dividend" only goes so far. My opportunity would focus on building the skills for those who were displace so they can return to the workforce.

Source: https://www.payscale.com/data/economic-trends-2019-2020

Regulatory Opportunities

#1-- Fishing Opportunities in Hawaii

A proposed rule by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) would reduce the number of interactions between Hawaii shallow-set pelagic longline fishery and the leatherback sea turtle from 26 to 16. If this regulation passes, I believe the fishery would need to find another location to fish, start fishing a different species, or a technology to reduce the harmful effects of interaction. The prototypical customer would be Hawaii shallow-set pelagic long line fishery and fisheries who must account for endangered species while operating. I believe this opportunity would be relatively simple to exploit and solutions could be implemented rapidly.

I formed this opportunity greatly influenced by a wildlife conservation class. In the class, I learned about endangered species and the devastating effects of human interaction on ecosystems. In this situation, the fishery needs to abide by the regulations to prevent further depletion of the leatherback turtle population. Money can be replaced, species cannot. 

Source: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=NOAA-NMFS-2019-0098-0006

#2-- Regulations Open Opportunities on Indian Reservations

A proposed rule by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would set new requirements on natural gas sources to improve the air conditions on Indian Country. The Federal Implementation Plan (FIP), I believe, would create a need for a method to accurately measure emission output to compare to new regulation standards. The prototypical customer would be operators and managers of natural gas drillers in the region. I believe this opportunity would be somewhat easy to implement. These facilities most likely already have equipment to measure emission output, but with this new regulation comparing output to standards currently lacks an efficient method of comparison.

My prior experience with changing protocols and routines shaped my opportunity belief. I used to volunteer for a food bank each summer in high school. It was a great experience, but each time I went there were new procedures in place or a new layout to follow. The changes did affect my productivity and I believe it will be the same for natural gas operators and managers if the rule takes effect.

Source: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EPA-R08-OAR-2015-0709-0001